CAN-US TRADE WAR TAKES TO SKIES

US TO DECERTIFY / CDN PLANES IN TIT-FOR-TAT

On January 29, 2026, President Trump escalated a long-simmering aerospace dispute into a major trade confrontation when he posted that the United States (“US”) will decertify the Bombardier Global Express – and ALL aircraft made in Canada(!) – until Canada certifies four Gulfstream models: the G500, G600, G700, and G800 models. The President also threatened 50% tariffs on Canadian aircraft imported into the US. While the White House has clarified that any actions would only apply to future US purchases, that would severely impact Canada’s large, (US) export-dependent aerospace industry.

In this Air & Aerospace Report, we dig into the background of this dispute and what it may mean for the North American aerospace industry moving forward.

The Truth about the Aerospace Dispute (?)

Canada-based Bombardier and US-based Gulfstream are two of the world’s largest business jet manufacturers, and Trump could well be correct that Transport Canada has dragged its feet in certifying Gulfstream’s ultra-long-range G-series models, for reasons that remain unclear, but appear unrelated to safety concerns.

In contrast, US and European Union (“EU”) regulators – the Federal Aviation Administration (“FAA”) and the European Union Aviation Safety Agency, respectively – certified the G500 and G600 in 2018 and 2019, the G700 in 2024 and the G800 in mid-2025. And during that time, the FAA has certified Bombardier’s flagship jets at a relatively steady pace, including the Global 8000, just last month.

Many point to the grim legacy of the Boeing 737 Max – grounded worldwide in 2019 after two crashes in six months – as a reason for the general increase in regulatory scrutiny in the aerospace industry.

Still, does Canada need six years (and counting) to assess planes the US and EU approved in a matter of months? The G500 and G600 have been in use for years, and have an excellent record for safety and reliability. Canada is the only major western market that has NOT yet certified. Not great for Canada’s reputation for excessive regulatory hurdles – and now our own aerospace industry may suffer.

Non-Tariff Trade Barriers

In International Trade Law parlance, Trump is essentially labelling Canada’s delayed certification process a Non-Tariff Trade Barrier (“NTB”). NTBs are defined as “all non-tax measures imposed by governments to favour domestic over foreign suppliers.” Data from the World Bank shows that relative to most other countries, Canada has an enormous number of NTBs, potentially impacting about 95% of imports (and 89% by total value).

While it is somewhat unclear how the US would decertify Canadian planes, under Section 301 of the US Trade Act of 1974 (codified at 19 U.S.C. § 2411 ), Trump is absolutely able to implement tariffs in response to unreasonable NTBs – so the Canadian aerospace industry is genuinely under threat. Regulatory uncertainty is sky-high. Firms across the industry are advised to seek Experienced Trade Counsel for strategic contingency planning. Expertise with Rules of Origin, substantial transformation rules, and US-content rules may help find ways to mitigate regulatory risk and tariff exposure.

Takeaways

The North American aerospace industry is in for some turbulence! The US may soon impose tariffs and other restrictive measures in a tit-for-tat against perceived NTBs by the Canadian government. Industry participants are caught in the middle.

Experienced Trade Counsel can help mitigate tariff exposure and regulatory risk, and navigate this complex new reality.

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